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🔥 Median all-cause excess mortality in the 20 most vaccinated highly developed countries increased by +149% after vaccination rollout!
Results
In 2020 median excess mortality in the top 20 highly developed countries was +4.5%, with the mass vaccine rollout in 2021, it increases to +9.9% and even further deteriorated in 2022 to +11.2%.
❓ How many countries saw an improvement of relative excess mortality with mass vaccination?
📉 3
📈 17
➡️ Only three countries saw an improvement in excess mortality, 17 had their excess mortality increase.
❓ How many countries achieved normal excess mortality levels (<1%) with vaccination?
📉 0
📈 20
➡️ None of the countries saw a return to negative or close to zero excess mortality levels.
Here are the individual excess mortality charts for all 20 countries:
Methodology
The 20 most vaccinated countries of the @OurWorldInData COVID-19 dataset were selected (min. 1 dose) and filtered by a very high Human Development Index (HDI) >=0.8 value. (1)
Excess Mortality was assessed by age-standardized mortality rates, where available, otherwise crude mortality rate (CMR) was used. A conservative pre-pandemic three-year average 2017-2019 (as used by Levitt et al. (9)) of the mortality rate was used as baseline, except for the United Arab Emirates, where the average of 2018-2019 was used, due to limited data availability.
Relative excess mortality was calculated by the @MortalityWatch tool, all links to charts can be found in the provided spreadsheet. (2)
Discussion
In contrast to general expectations, excess mortality continued and almost tripled with global mass vaccine rollouts.
Considering, that:
1) The COVID-19 vaccines are said to offer a protection against death of up to 94%, according to the CDC, this should have led to a massive reduction in overall excess mortality, not an increase. (3)
2) 2020 IFR estimates by Ioannidis et al., already demonstrated a moderate IFR for all age-groups of 0.23%, and 0.05% for <70-year-olds. (6)
3) Subsequent virus variants decreased in CFR/IFR, a drop of 79% in IFR from previous variants was reported for the Omicron variant in 2022. (8)
4) Early variants of 2020 lead to many deaths in the most vulnerable, hence a temporary mortality deficit should be expected going forward. (“Pull forward effect”)
5) The early diamond princess outbreak of 2020, demonstrated that only about 20% of people tested positive. Since measures and awareness were non-existent at that point in time on the ship, it is clear, that a significant amount of the population must have pre-existing immunity. (7)
6) Use of a conservative three-year average baseline method. In many countries, a declining mortality trend can be observed pre-pandemic. In this case, the average method, could even lead to underestimation of excess mortality.
Given these reasons, it appears mathematically impossible, for excess mortality to rise in subsequent years after a novel virus outbreak, and with a “highly effective vaccine” available.
HDI was used as an indicator, to quickly control for several confounders, that typically impact mortality levels in lower developed nations. E.g. general health status, income levels, poverty levels, that typically impact health outcomes. A common example is when mistakenly comparing lower HDI countries such as eastern European nations, e.g. Bulgaria, with higher HDI countries.
Often, restrictions & NPI’s are brought forward as the reason why 2020 saw relatively fewer excess deaths. However, it is already established by now again – as it was pre-2020 for seasonal influenza – that none of the NPI’s have significantly reduced the spread of COVID-19. (Meta studies by Cochrane and Johns Hopkins (4) (5)). Germany’s R value already decreased below 0, before the first lockdown in March 2020, indicating the natural limitation of outbreaks.
