colinnew
The Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll taken during 14-15 June 2023, shows the following net approval rating (“Favorable” minus “Unfavorable”) for all of the listed possible candidates:
- +21% Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
- +9% Elon Musk
- +9% Tim Scott
- +8% Vivek Ramaswamy
- +5% Ron DeSantis
- +4% Nikki Haley
- -1% Bernie Sanders
- -3% Donald Trump, Doug Bergum, Ted Cruz
- -6% Maryanne Williamson
- -7% Kevin McCarthy, Mike Pence, Asa Hutchinson
- -8% Chuck Schumer
- -10% Kamala Harris, Joe Manchin, Gavin Newsom
- -11% Joe Biden
- -12% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
- -16% Chris Christie
- -17% Hillary Clinton
- -24% Mitch McConnell
Kennedy is tied with Trump for “Favorable” at 45% for each, but whereas Trump has a 48% “Unfavorable” rating, Kennedy’s “Unfavorable” is only 25%.
So, if Party-affiliation were not a factor (which was the intention of America’s Founders), then Kennedy would at the present time be the most preferred person to become President.
Musk ties with them on “Favorable” at 45%, and his “Unfavorable” is 36%; so, he’s currently the second-most-preferred next President.
DeSantis’s “Favorable” is 43%, while his “Unfavorable” is 37%; but the closest whole number reflecting the difference (his “Net Favorable”) is +5% not +6%.
Sanders’s “Favorable” is 42%, while his “Unfavorable” is 43%; so, his “Net Favorable” is -1%.
Though Scott is tied with Musk at +9% “Net Favorable,” Scott’s “Favorable” is 10% less than Musk’s, at 35% “Favorable.” Scott’s “Unfavorable” is 25%, as compared to Musk’s 36% “Unfavorable.” (Scott isn’t as well-known as is Musk.)
Ramaswamy’s “Favorable” is 27%, and his “Unfavorable” is 18%; so, he’s even less-well-known than is Scott.
The most-well-known possible candidates are Trump and Biden tied at 93% known.
Clinton is 90% known. Harris is 88% known. Sanders is 85% known.
Kennedy is only 70% known.
That’s 30% unknown; so, though he is currently by far the leading candidate, he also is the major prospective candidate who can fall the farthest.
By contrast, Clinton is deeply disliked, at 53% “Unfavorable.”
Biden too is deeply disliked, at 52% “Unfavorable.”
Harris and McConnell are tied as both at 49% “Unfavorable.”
The fifth-most disliked is Trump at 48% “Unfavorable.”
The most-detested person on the list is McConnell at 49% “Unfavorable” and 26% “Favorable.”
Since America’s Founders failed to avoid there being political Parties, here are the answers to the Party-primary questions:
“If the Democratic presidential primary for the 2024 election was held today, who would you vote for? (Dem Voters)”:
Biden 62%, Kennedy 15%, Someone else 8%, Williamson 4%, Unsure 12%.
Trump gets 77% against Scott, and 67% against DeSantis.
“TRUMP WINS A HYPOTHETICAL HORSERACE AGAINST BIDEN BY SIX POINTS, AGAINST HARRIS BY SEVEN”
(The polling organization failed to indicate whether RFK Jr. would today win against Trump, because the expectation is that he would but the megadonors who control U.S. “elections” are terrified of him and so the DNC can’t stand him. However, the pollster did publish that 69% of Democrats say they’d be disappointed if the two-Party contest ends up being Biden versus Trump. BY CONTRAST: The polling organization avoided asking a comparable question of Republicans; but, of the questions they did ask, Republicans seemed to be less-dissatisfied to have Trump be their nominee than Democrats clearly indicated that they would be if Biden turns out to be their nominee. Again: the pollster seems to have tried to avoid drawing favorable attention to RFK Jr. as possibly being the nominee.)
57% of voters think “JOE BIDEN TOOK A $5 MILLION BRIBE WHEN HE WAS VICE PRESIDENT.”
(No Party-breakdown on that: Presumably, most of those 57% are Republican voters anyway.)
The pollsters avoided asking respondents’ race, probably because South Carolina was the earliest Democratic Party primary that Biden won, and he won by a huge margin, over two-to-one, against Sanders, especially among black voters, who dominate that state’s Democratic Party; so, the DNC has now made that the first primary in the 2024 contest, since Biden was enormously popular among that state’s Democratic Party voters.
The expectation is that RFK Jr. will get crushed in the S.C. primary, the first primary, on 3 February 2024. Next up will be February 6th with both NH and NV — two states that Sanders had won. Then February 13th with Georgia (another SC) expected to go overwhelmingly for Biden; then February 27th with Michigan being a crucial wild card. Then a slew of southern states, because it was the black voters who made Biden become the Party’s nominee.
So: Blacks will again end up choosing the Democratic Party’s nominee, and Whites will end up again determining the Republican Party’s nominee, and the billionaires won’t need to worry about anything, because the public will see themselves as racially divided, instead of as being class-divided (billionaires versus the public), and things will therefore go on as they have been.
By far the most-favorably-viewed “Institution” of the eleven that are listed is “U.S. Military.”
“Police” are #2. “FBI” is #3. #11 is “MAGA Republicans.” #10 is “CNN.” Tied as #s 7, 8, & 9, are MSNBC, BLM, and Fox News. In the middle are the Justice Department and U.S. Supreme Court.
