Trump destabilized Canada in 2016. Trudeau doesn’t want it to happen again.

Trudeau’s most-senior officials have been dispatched across America to make inroads with lawmakers, governors, business leaders — anyone who might have a role in Trump’s future orbit.

Canadian Ambassador Kirsten Hillman and International Trade Minister Mary Ng made a house call in Austin at the Texas governor’s mansion in May. Their entourage included five Canadian business leaders representing C$120 billion worth of investments in the state.

It got the attention of Gov. Greg Abbott.

The Canadians, representatives of a progressive government, avoided any talk of social issues with the Republican and spoke in terms Americans know and understand: Money.

“The Canada-Texas relationship is essential to Texas — and it’s essential to Texas winning the future,” Abbott said after the meeting wrapped.

Hillman, who recounted the visit, said she measures her efforts not in how many people she meets, but rather in how many of those interlocutors internalize her message and repeat it back.

“That’s what the governor did,” she said of the Texas trip.

As world leaders prepare for the possibility of a Trump victory, few have much at stake as Trudeau. Last time around, Trump derided him as “two-faced” and a “far-left lunatic,” forced a renegotiation of North American trade and slapped tariffs on Canadian aluminum and steel — all of it horrifying Canada, which considers itself America’s most loyal ally. Trudeau was among the world leaders to get Trump on the phone in the hours after the former president survived an assassination attempt.

Whether diplomacy can overcome animosity remains to be seen, but Trudeau’s emissaries are giving it their best effort.

Roy Norton, a former Canadian diplomat who once handled Ottawa’s relations with Congress, warns that if Trump returns to office, Canada is likely to find itself on the defensive.

“Donald Trump doesn’t much like Justin Trudeau and might be prone to do something aggressive, just to be disruptive — to show who’s in charge,” Norton said in an interview.

He noted that Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy each campaigned in the New Hampshire Republican primary on the idea of building a wall on the U.S.-Canada border, a reminder that Ottawa has “no control” over Washington or states.

Even if Trump returns to the White House a scarier version of himself, the prime minister’s inner circle is confident they can make things work, says a senior government official granted anonymity to speak freely about handling the former president.

The Canadians managed to work with the White House, despite the potshots. They were insulated by the belief the Canada-U.S. relationship is too strong for one president to tear up. The plan for a potential Trump 2.0 administration is to grin and bear it.

They are also aware that even with a Democratic win in November, protectionism is on the table, which is why so many resources are being funneled into “Team Canada.”

In dozens of interviews with POLITICO, current and former government officials, Cabinet ministers and diplomats described an “unprecedented” approach to diplomacy and pre-election preparation.

“This time, it is more systematic, conscientious,” Hillman told POLITICO. “There is no end point.”

Alongside Hillman, Trudeau tapped François-Philippe Champagne, Canada’s charismatic industry minister, and Ng to round out his “Team Canada.” The high-level ministers had been focused on making Canada’s economy less dependent on America. Now, they’re spending more time than ever reaching out to MAGA-friendly lawmakers.

In March, Champagne met South Carolina Republican Gov. Henry McMaster. Later in the spring, he capped his first-ever visit to Nebraska with a meeting with Republican Gov. Jim Pillen.

Doubling down on America

In August 2023, Canada’s embassy in Washington started to map every political and business relation they had in each American state. They were looking for gaps. Hillman’s team tracked their outreach on spreadsheets.

The ambassador hosted parties at the embassy where she awarded top traders “Billion Dollar Club” trophies in celebration of their dedication to “strengthening the North American partnership.”

Ottawa’s “Aha!” moment arrived in January 2024 when Hillman attended Arizona’s State of the State Address as a guest of Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs. She found state lawmakers clueless to the fact Canada is the Grand Canyon state’s biggest foreign direct investor, pouring $3.6 billion in investments annually.

“There were tons of people on their legislative floor going, ‘I had no idea! Why would I know that? We’re in Arizona, we’re not a border state,’” Hillman said.

“And now they know.”

After Hillman briefed Cabinet on the meeting weeks later, Trudeau’s inner circle latched onto the idea of Trump-proofing the economy. They wanted to court “influencer” lawmakers and business leaders, especially in places historically ambivalent about Canada — states such as Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Florida.

Within two months the federal global affairs department created a desk they dubbed “The Hub” to coordinate outreach and triage intelligence collected by the country’s 13 consulate generals in Seattle, Dallas, Chicago and beyond. Larisa Galadza, Canada’s former ambassador to Ukraine, pooled reports.

While a name like “The Hub” hints at a slick dashboard, the government’s work is actually powered by Microsoft SharePoint and only accessible to the global affairs team. If someone in Trudeau’s office wants to review minister deployments or stakeholder requests, they must ask the department to export an Excel sheet.

Canadians on the road

In March, Hillman, Ng and Champagne gathered in Michigan to make their Team Canada stateside debut in a key swing state.

The trio met with members of the Canada-United States Business Association (CUSBA) at a Motor City law firm in a boardroom with a panoramic view of Windsor and the two bridges that connect the hub cities.

Windsor is so close that in certain parts of downtown Detroit, Canadians still enjoy domestic cell service without triggering international roaming fees. Over a catered lunch with the CUSBA crew, the ambassador and ministers leaned on that interconnectedness and the idea of intertwined economies: A comeback for Detroit is a comeback for Canada.

CUSBA members inquired about the longevity of the Trudeau government with an election that must be held by October 2025. Trudeau has been trailing in polls for more than a year, unable to close a 20-point gap led by rival Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

Laurie Tannous, an immigration attorney who serves as CUSBA president, found herself using the same language as Hillman, Ng and Champagne that day, talking about “supply chain resiliency” — a phrase that shows up in speeches by U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo. Tannous said the two big issues for CUSBA are immigration and the 2026 review of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement.

“The cross-border community has become used to having to become very nimble,” she said.

Team Canada’s one-day blitz ended in a fifth-floor corner suite at the exclusive Detroit Athletic Club. In a room overlooking Comerica Park, the Canadians met Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan and Michigan Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist — key “influencers” on their checklist.

The meeting, and a glitzy ballroom after-party that followed, was an example of sweat equity that doesn’t involve negotiation toward an agreement or a plan, Champagne explained later. There are “intangible benefits” to gather, he said.

Champagne said he’s on a mission to reframe Canada’s reputation from “the nice guys up north” to something more consequential, like the “strategic partner for the 21st century.”

Champagne’s message “actually sells very well here on the ground,” Dan Ujczo, an Ohio-based international trade attorney with Thompson Hine, told POLITICO.

“It’s a 365-24/7 job to be here constantly reminding people the importance of trade,” Ujczo said. “In this environment, there’s a reflexive reaction in the U.S. to go insular.”

Hillman knows this. “We do want to make sure we are covering the entirety of the United States,” she said in Detroit. Champagne added, “In this re-industrialization, we need to do things differently.”

In May, Trudeau traveled to Pennsylvania to address a union convention.

“At this moment of global crises and deep uncertainty, Canada and the United States know that we can count on each other,” he told the Service Employees International Union. “Today, more than ever, we should remind ourselves of how priceless a partnership like ours is.”

Buy North American

No matter who wins in November, the Trudeau government knows Washington’s effort to use subsidies and tax breaks to “re-shore” manufacturing is here to stay. Team Canada wants to transform “Buy America” rhetoric into a “Buy North America” songbook.

There is no denying a Trump victory carries specific risks. He’s promising to pass a Reciprocal Trade Act, tit-for-tat tariffs, and to introduce a 10 percent universal tariff on imports, an initiative championed by former trade chief Robert Lighthizer, who is expected to play a role in a second Trump administration.

“We’re talking to Trump advisers on this, we are really urging them to consider what the implications of applying that would be,” Hillman said during a POLITICO-CNN Grill panel on the sidelines of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.

Steve Verheul, Canada’s former chief trade negotiator, tangled firsthand with Lighthizer.

“He’s very strongly concerned about issues in relation to China,” he said. “Rather than having the U.S. go off and take further actions against China, it would be good if Canada, in particular, could have more in-depth discussions with the U.S. about how we could protect the North American market — not just the U.S. market.”

Verheul told POLITICO that Team Canada’s advocacy work in the U.S. is strong — and that Hillman “has all the contacts” — but highlighted room to integrate Canadian businesses more — especially with the USMCA review on the horizon.

Team Canada’s blind spots

The biggest knock against Trudeau’s “Team Canada” is its name, which implies an all-hands-on-deck undertaking — rather than simply a Liberal one.

During his first term, Trudeau recruited former Conservative Cabinet ministers Rona Ambrose and James Moore to his NAFTA Advisory Council, “to fight for workers and for Canadians.”

This time around, Conservatives haven’t been formally asked to join Team Canada diplomatic offensive, though emboldened by Trudeau’s low approvals, they are setting up their own meetings with diplomats and presenting themselves as a government in waiting.

Conservative Leader Poilievre has said little about how he’d work with Washington, instead using vague language to advocate for a stronger industrial policy. He’s played it safe by signposting such bilateral priorities as getting Canada exempt from “Buy America” infrastructure procurement rules. Resolving the softwood lumber dispute is also high on his to-do list. But he’s yet to say how he’d tackle Trump’s Reciprocal Trade Act or universal import tariff.

In an interview with POLITICO during the Detroit trip, Hillman was defensive when asked about the Conservative gap on the current Team Canada. “We work with Conservative parliamentarians,” she said. “They’re a very important part of our relations with the U.S.”

But Poilievre, unlike his predecessors, has yet to visit Washington since becoming leader.

The Trump ‘tsunami’

It remains to be seen if a diplomatic campaign can inoculate Canada from a former president who is charting a second term motivated by retribution.

Regular calls during the first administration between Trudeau Chief of Staff Katie Telford and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser, were useful, said the senior government official.

Trudeau’s office keeps up relations with members of Trump’s old inner circle while it continues to build relationships with potential new whisperers.

Meanwhile, Trump’s policy plans signal challenges that transcend Team Canada’s focus on trade and investment.

Bruce Heyman, a former U.S. ambassador to Canada in the Obama administration, has been keeping busy warning Canadian diplomats and chambers of commerce against sleepwalking into a “political tsunami.” On Monday, Heyman said he would be “enthusiastically endorsing” Vice President Kamala Harris for president since President Joe Biden has dropped out of the race.

Heyman’s first concern is Trump’s plan to round up millions of migrants. If there’s a surge at the southern border, it will incentivize some to head north, he said. Other problems include Trump’s overt NATO threats and what his administration will do after pulling the U.S. out of the Paris climate treaty for the second time.

Another nightmare scenario is more existential. “What happens if you have an authoritarian regime next door,” Heyman asked.

However much Canada thinks it’s preparing, “you’re probably not preparing enough,” Heyman said. “He’s so darn transactional, and he doesn’t seem to care about allies.”